Football betting, using statistics to choose the right bet

This page is here to give you an introduction to using football statistics to help you choose a winning bet as well as potentially introduce you to different betting markets you hadn’t previously thought off using.

Now most of us when placing a football bet go with our hearts and bet on the team we support, now this is a very good way to win money if you support one of the big boys such as Man United, Barcelona or any of  the other top teams. But if you support one of the less successful teams or like to place bets on different betting markets (goals overs/under market for example) then using football stats is an excellent way to turn the odds in your favour.

In this introduction we will look at the goals market but the same stat sites theory can be used to help with other bets as well. So let’s get on with it, we will look at an upcoming match to try to find the right bet based on their results history from sites such as Soccerway.com.

The game we will look at is the Premier league match between Norwich City vs Newcastle United. Below you will see the previous five game Premiership game history for each team and this is what we will use to pick a bet.

Norwich game history

Norwich City 2 – 1 Wigan Athletic
West Bromwich 2 – 1 Norwich City
Norwich City 0 – 1 Chelsea
Norwich City 3 – 4 Manchester City
West Ham United 2 – 1 Norwich City

Newcastle game history

Newcastle United 1 – 3 Manchester City
Newcastle United 1 – 0 Queens Park Rangers
Manchester United 4 – 3 Newcastle United
Arsenal 7 – 3 Newcastle United
Newcastle United 1 – 2 Everton

Looking at the above the first thing you should notice is that both teams games have had goals 80% of which both teams have scored in and more than one in most cases, Norwich’s last 5 games have an average of 3.4 goals a game and Newcastle’s have an average of a massive 5! This at a glance instantly points to the Overs goal market and the higher end of the market at that 3.5 or 4.5 goals.

Look a bit deeper though and there is also a game for each team that finished 1-0 which should make you a bit more wary of going all out for the larger odds bet of 3.5 or 4.5 goals. Especially as the games for both teams that have had the most goals have been against top of the table opposition, which this game certainly isn’t.

This leaves me seeing two options for this game both using an on-line bookmaker that a offers in-play betting, the first is the over 1.5 goals market which will offer lower odds but a safer bet and the second is the over 2.5 goals market slightly more risky but based on the stats still a good bet which will offer a slightly larger return and also giving the option to trade out your bet if there are early goals as the game would be in play with the bookmakers.

By no means is this a full proof way to bet as there isn’t one but it is a more educated way to pick a bet and we will publish the results of both betting options on this page after the event. This is just a very short look at the stats available and the insight you can gain if you so choose. If you decide that you would rather some one did the work for you why not check out the page where we use the above research and more to pick what will hopefully be a winning bet.

If you do choose to follow you do so at your own risk as the above is just the opinion of the FreeBetDeposit team.

Thanks for reading and good luck!